Jamie Elsey
Jamie Elsey is a Senior Behavioral Scientist at Rethink Priorities, with a background in psychology and neuroscience. Before joining RP, Jamie earned a PhD in Clinical Psychology from the University of Amsterdam, where he investigated novel approaches to the treatment of anxiety disorders. His previous research work has also included the development of tools for statistical inference, online interventions, discussion of drug policy and food policy, and neuroethics.
Research Articles
US public opinion of AI policy and risk
This nationally-representative survey of U.S. public opinions on AI aimed to replicate and extend other recent polls. The findings suggest that people are cautious about AI and favor federal regulation though they perceive other risks (e.g. nuclear war) as more likely to cause human extinction.
US public opinion of AI policy and risk
Summary On April 14 2023, Rethink Priorities conducted an online poll to assess US public perceptions of, and opinions about, AI risk. The poll was intended to conceptually replicate and…
Influences on individuals adopting vegetarian and vegan diets
This blog post examines why people adapt vegetarian and vegan diets. RP’s 2019 survey indicated that the greatest sources of influence were personal interactions, as well as interactions with animals. The importance attributed to social media, online videos, and documentaries is also high, particularly among more recent adopters.
Influences on individuals adopting vegetarian and vegan diets
Topline summary points: Personal conversations/interactions are reported to be the most important influences in adopting a vegan or vegetarian diet, and most frequently also the first influence in getting someone…
US public perception of CAIS statement and the risk of extinction
On June 2-3, 2023, Rethink Priorities conducted an online poll of US adults to assess their views regarding a recent open statement from the Center for AI Safety (CAIS). The statement read: “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
Forecasts estimate limited cultured meat production through 2050
Is it worth the effective altruism (EA) community trying to accelerate the growth of cultured meat production? Should EA just let market forces move it forward? Should EA invest directly in cultured meat R&D or identify high-leverage ways to increase funding? Or should EA just not invest in it because it is insufficiently promising?
Forecasts estimate limited cultured meat production through 2050
Note: For brevity, we use M for a million (106) and B for a billion (109). Summary We (Neil and Linch) developed forecasting questions around cultured meat reaching annual production…
How many people have heard of effective altruism?
This post reports the results of a survey we ran in April 2022 investigating how many people had heard of ‘effective altruism’ in a large (n=6130[1]) sample, weighted to be…
How many people have heard of effective altruism?
This post reports the results of a survey we ran in April 2022 investigating how many people had heard of ‘effective altruism’ in a large sample, weighted to be representative of the US general population. This survey replicates and extends a survey we ran in conjunction with CEA in early 2021, which focused only on US students. Because that survey was not representative, we think that these new results offer a significant advance in estimating how many people in the US population have heard of EA, and in particular sub-groups like students and even students at top-ranked universities.
US public perception of CAIS statement and the risk of extinction
Written by: Jamie Elsey • David Moss Summary On June 2nd-June 3rd 2023, Rethink Priorities conducted an online poll of US adults, to assess their views regarding a recent open statement from…
Volunteering for infection: Participant perspectives on a Hepatitis C virus controlled human infection model
This post is a linkpost from the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases. The report was a collaboration between 1Day Sooner and Rethink Priorities.
Cost-effectiveness analysis of Lafiya Nigeria intervention
Editorial Note This document is intended to explain some of the modeling decisions we made in assessing the cost-effectiveness of Lafiya Nigeria’s intervention, along with some considerations for scaling…
British public perception of existential risks
Key points We surveyed UK respondents, asking them to list (without prompting) the three factors they thought most likely to cause human extinction in the next 100 years. We…
Incorporating and visualizing uncertainty in cost effectiveness analyses: A walkthrough using GiveWell’s estimates for StrongMinds
This post introduces an app—Distributr—developed by Rethink Priorities’ Jamie Elsey to better incorporate and visualize uncertainty in cost-effectiveness estimates. As a case study, the post discusses GiveWell’s assessment of Happier Lives Institute’s cost-effectiveness analyses for StrongMinds.
Impact ranking database
This report was commissioned by Charity Navigator to explore the feasibility of creating an impact-ranking database that aims to score over 230,000 charities on their website based on their impactfulness. Our researchers investigated a wide range of potential methods, including machine learning and large language models. The team undertook a broad set of research activities, from defining impact to concretely assessing the advantages and disadvantages of methodological options. They ultimately conclude these approaches are not feasible, but suggest alternatives.
Pulse: US attitudes and awareness regarding effective giving and philanthropic cause areas
Rethink Priorities’ Pulse project seeks to address the critical knowledge gap around US public awareness and perceptions regarding effective giving and related topics. This report presents the first wave of results from large, nationally-representative surveys our researchers conducted between July and September 2024.
Pulse: US attitudes and awareness regarding effective giving and philanthropic cause areas
Rethink Priorities’ Pulse project seeks to address the critical knowledge gap around US public awareness and perceptions regarding effective giving and related topics. This report presents the first wave of results from large, nationally-representative surveys our researchers conducted between July and September 2024.
Impact ranking database
This report was commissioned by Charity Navigator to explore the feasibility of creating an impact-ranking database that aims to score over 230,000 charities on their website based on their impactfulness. Our researchers investigated a wide range of potential methods, including machine learning and large language models. The team undertook a broad set of research activities, from defining impact to concretely assessing the advantages and disadvantages of methodological options. They ultimately conclude these approaches are not feasible, but suggest alternatives.