Arvo Muñoz Morán
Arvo Muñoz Morán is a Senior Researcher working on the Worldview Investigations Team at Rethink Priorities and also does work for Oxford’s Global Priorities Institute. Before that, he was a Research Analyst at the Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research and earned an MPhil in Economics from Oxford. His background is in mathematics and philosophy.
Research Articles
Rethink Priorities’ Moral Parliament Tool
This post is the sixth installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Here, the team introduces the Moral Parliament Tool, which models ways an agent can make decisions about how to allocate goods in light of normative uncertainty.
Rethink Priorities’ Portfolio Builder Tool
This post is the second installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Here, the team introduces the Portfolio Builder—an interactive tool designed to help donors optimize their philanthropic giving portfolios by evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different cause areas.
Taking Uncertainty Seriously (or, Why Tools Matter)
This post is the seventh installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Here, the researchers explain how the Moral Parliament tool can help address uncertainty.
How bad would human extinction be?
This is the fifth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This report builds on the model originally introduced by Toby Ord on how to estimate the value of existential risk mitigation.
Bargaining among worldviews
Executive Summary In this post, we explore why final spending allocations might depart from proportionality over worldviews, even if we assume traditional forms of worldview diversification. We discuss why it…
Risk Alignment in Agentic AI Systems
Introduction Proper alignment is a tetradic affair, involving relationships among AIs, their users, their developers, and society at large (Gabriel, et al. 2024). Agentic AIs—AIs that are capable and permitted…
An Introduction to the CRAFT Sequence
This post is the first installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Through this project, the Team developed two tools to help donors work through uncertainties: a giving portfolio builder and a moral parliament simulation.
Exploring Key Cases with the Portfolio Builder
This post is the third installment in the Worldview Investigation Team’s Charitable Resource Allocation Frameworks and Tools (CRAFT) Sequence. Here, the team expands on a previous post introducing the Giving Portfolio Builder Tool.
Valuing Impacts Across Species: A Research Agenda
Rethink Priorities’ Worldview Investigations Team is sharing research agendas that provide overviews of some key research areas as well as projects in those areas that we would be keen to…
The Welfare of Digital Minds
The research agenda explores critical philosophical and empirical questions about the potential welfare and moral status of digital minds, focusing on understanding when and how artificial intelligence systems might deserve ethical consideration.
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Resource Allocation: A Research Agenda
Rethink Priorities’ Worldview Investigations Team is sharing research agendas that provide overviews of some key research areas as well as projects in those areas that we would be keen to pursue. This is the last of three such agendas posted in November 2024. While we have flagged specific projects we’d like to work on, these are not exhaustive. We would recommend that prospective donors reach out directly to discuss what might make the most sense for us to focus on.
Resource Allocation: A Research Agenda
Rethink Priorities’ Worldview Investigations Team is sharing research agendas that provide overviews of some key research areas as well as projects in those areas that we would be keen to pursue. This is the last of three such agendas posted in November 2024. While we have flagged specific projects we’d like to work on, these are not exhaustive. We would recommend that prospective donors reach out directly to discuss what might make the most sense for us to focus on.
Strategic Directions for a Digital Consciousness Model
The Worldview Investigations Team is in the process of building a model to estimate the probabilities of consciousness in near-future AIs.