Juan Gil
Research Articles
Key characteristics for evaluating future global governance institutions
This research was written by Juan Gil, a Visiting Fellow at Rethink Priorities, in Summer 2021 as part of their internship. This post outlines a framework of five characteristics…
Key characteristics for evaluating future global governance institutions
This post outlines a framework of five characteristics that seem most relevant for longtermists to consider when evaluating the impact of a “global agent” (as defined below) like a world government or a strong global governance institution.
Types of specification problems in forecasting
In the context of forecasting, how you ask a question can be a large factor in how much information you get from the forecasts on that question. We will thus explore the problems associated with the way you operationalize a question on a forecasting platform, which we will call the question specification. (Terms also used include resolution criteria or operationalization.) Specifically: what are types of specification problems that reduce or misalign optimization power going towards prediction (in different forecasting settings)? What are some ways to resolve these different problems?
Types of specification problems in forecasting
Written By: Juan Gil This research was written by Juan Gil, Visiting Fellow at Rethink Priorities, in Summer 2021 as part of RP’s internship program. In the context of forecasting,…