Investments into insect farming: Recent trends and projected production capacity in 2030

Short summary

• Publicly disclosed investments of around $2B have flowed into insect farming businesses to date, mostly producers of black soldier fly larvae (59%) and mealworms (36%). But major players accounting for 37% of investment have either failed or are known to be struggling.
• Annual investment flows into insect farming were growing rapidly prior to 2021, but this trend appears to have stopped. Investor sentiment is low and has been rocked by recent failures.
• I built a simple model to estimate what paths for future investment flows might mean for future production capacity of dried black soldier fly and mealworm larvae.
• The median model projection points to production capacity of 221K metric tonnes of dried insects by 2030, less than half of that predicted in an influential 2021 Rabobank report.
• Despite a more modest production outlook, the median scenario is still consistent with a very large number of insect larvae being farmed (293B at any time) and killed (3.9T annually) in 2030.
• There are many limitations and caveats with the model and its projections, which should be read before citing the numbers or making decisions based on them.

Longer summary

• This report analyzes recent trends in investment into insect farming and estimates the production capacity for black soldier fly and mealworm larvae based on paths for future investment flows. 
• Cumulative publicly disclosed investments into insect farming totalled just under $2B until end June 2024. However, at least $745M (or 36%) of this investment has been made into companies that have either stopped operating or entered a court-supervised restructuring process.
• A majority of investments have been made into firms farming black soldier fly larvae (59%) or mealworms (36%). However if we exclude large firms that have stopped operating or are struggling, the vast majority of investment (84%) is into businesses farming black soldier fly larvae.
• Prior to 2021, annual investment flows into insect farming were growing rapidly. This trend appears to have now stopped, and there are signs annual investment flows may have flattened off or may even be falling. 
• It is difficult to know how much of this is due to the broader investment environment, or sector-specific concerns about insect farming, though there is evidence that investor sentiment is low and has been negatively affected by the failure of major players.
• To help understand the implications of changes in the investment landscape, I built a simple model that projects future production capacity of the black soldier fly and mealworm farming sectors.  The model takes a Monte Carlo simulation approach, and is based on possible future paths for investment flows and assumptions about how quickly and efficiently the industry can turn investment into production capacity.
• The median model projection points to industry production capacity of around 221K tonnes of dried insects by 2030. This is just under half of the production capacity anticipated by an influential 2021 Rabobank report. The Rabobank report projection was in turn below many other market forecasts.
• Although the median model projection potentially implies a lower future production capacity, it still points to a very large number of insects being farmed and harvested. The median model projection is consistent with 3.9T black soldier fly larvae and mealworms being harvested in 2030, and around 293B larvae being farmed at any time.
• Uncertainty around the estimates is high, and the model has many limitations. I highly recommend reading the caveats and limitations section prior to using or taking decisions based on the figures based on this report.

Introduction

Insect farming has been hypothesized as a way to help meet the protein needs of a growing human population and improve food system sustainability by valorizing low-value food waste streams and reducing reliance on fishmeal and soybean meal. 

The prospect of a profitable way of helping achieve sustainability goals attracted investors. Annual investment flows into the sector grew rapidly from 2015 to 2020. In an influential Rabobank report, de Jong & Nikoli (2021) described the trend as “exponential” and hypothesized that the market for insects as food and feed could grow from around 10K metric tonnes per annum to around 500K tonnes per annum by 2030. 

Other projections suggested even greater potential for the farmed insect sector. A 2019 survey of members of IPIFF, a trade association for European insect producers, suggested European production alone could exceed 2.5M tonnes by 2030. Elleby et al. (2022) hypothesized that the global market for insect-based protein meal could exceed 23M tonnes by 2030. Meticulous Research (2024) forecast the market for black soldier fly products would grow at an average rate of 31% per year by value (or 40% by volume) and reach 8.2M tonnes by 2033.

Since many of these projections were published, investor sentiment has deteriorated. The industry has struggled with profitability, and there is wide acknowledgement that capital has not always been deployed effectively (Badeski, 2023; Watson, 2024). Some major businesses have stopped operations (e.g., Agriprotein and Beta Hatch) or entered court-supervised restructuring proceedings (e.g., Ynsect). 

Despite the recent developments, we are yet to observe revised market projections that set out a more realistic path for the sector.  The absence of realistic forecasts may undermine credibility of claims made by insect farming businesses.  The founder of UK-based producer Entocycle recently suggested he sees no reason to dispute the growth rates proposed by Meticulous research (Bryne, 2024).  But given the struggles of major players, such a claim appears increasingly hard to defend.  

This report analyzes trends and investments into the insect as food and feed businesses listed on Crunchbase up until the end of June 2024, and describes the results of a simple model that estimates what possible future paths for investment flows might imply for the future production capacity of the black soldier fly larvae and mealworm farming sectors.  I believe the model suggests a more realistic path for future production capacity than many commonly cited forecasts.

Around $2B has been invested into insect farming

Up until the end of June 2024, publicly disclosed investments totalling just under $2B have been invested into insect farming businesses we identified. Our dataset captures 310 deals across 104 businesses, of which 21 have publicly disclosed investments exceeding $10M (see Chart 1).

Investments are highly concentrated in a handful of large firms. The seven firms that have raised over $50M account for 78% of total publicly-disclosed investments into the sector.

Chart 1 – Insect farming businesses that have received more than $10M in publicly disclosed funding

Source: Rethink Priorities analysis of various data sources including Crunchbase, Dealroom, company & investor websites, and news sources.

Note: Company status definition of administration includes French safeguard proceedings.

Among the firms raising more than $10M, there have been a handful of high-profile failures. Agriprotein, a South African black soldier fly larvae (BSFL) producer, entered administration in 2021. Beta Hatch, a US-based mealworm producer, stopped operations and auctioned its equipment in late 2023. And in late 2024 Ynsect, a French-headquartered mealworm producer entered safeguard proceedings, a court-supervised voluntary restructuring process for solvent but struggling French businesses that affords some protections from creditors. At the time of writing, it remains unclear whether Ynsect is more likely to emerge as a restructured business or enter liquidation. Ynsect attracted over a quarter of all publicly-disclosed funding into insect farming, and its struggles are likely to exacerbate concerns that investors may have about the sector. 

Most of the investment has been into black soldier fly farming

Most of the publicly-disclosed investment to date has flowed into the firms farming black soldier fly larvae (59%), followed by mealworms (36%), with other species and activities accounting for less than 6% (see Chart 2).

The relatively high share of investment into mealworm farming businesses may not accurately reflect future production activity. Beta Hatch and Ynsect attracted over 85% of publicly-disclosed investment into mealworm farming businesses. If larger firms that have either closed or entered formal restructuring proceedings are excluded, the share of investment into BSFL farming increases to 84% while the share of mealworm farming falls to 7%. The latter figure is most likely a lower bound of how much historical investment might support future production capacity for mealworms. It remains possible that Ynsect could be restructured and emerge as a viable business. And even if Ynsect were to enter insolvency proceedings, its assets and intellectual property could be acquired and support future mealworm production.

Chart 2 – Cumulative investment into insect farming by species, activity, and company status 

Source: Rethink Priorities analysis of various data sources including Crunchbase, Dealroom, various company & investor websites, and news sources.

Note: Company status definition of administration includes French safeguard proceedings.

Annual investment flows appear to have stopped growing

Annual investment flows into insect farming grew rapidly from around $19M in 2014 to $495M in 2022. The trend since then has been less clear, with a sharp decrease in 2021 to $87M (possibly related to the impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic), followed by an increase to $539M in 2022. Investment flows then fell back to $306M in 2023. In H1 2024, publicly disclosed investments by insect farming firms profiled on Crunchbase totalled only $64M.

Chart 3 – Annual investment flows into insect farming (by value, USD)

Source: Rethink Priorities analysis of various data sources including Crunchbase, Dealroom, company & investor websites, and news sources.

Our analysis of the underlying data suggests that the value of investment flows in any given calendar year can be heavily distorted by whether one or more of the largest firms happens to have raised funding that year. Examining the number of deals in a given year can help strip out the volatility associated with large deals. The data in Chart 4 suggest that the number of deals peaked in 2021 at 48, and has been falling gradually since.

Chart 4 – Annual investment flows into insect farming (by number of announced deals)

Source: Rethink Priorities analysis of various data sources including Crunchbase, Dealroom, company & investor websites, and news sources.

Sentiment has deteriorated and the funding outlook is unclear

Remarks by commentators are consistent with deteriorating investor sentiment. Michael Badeski (2023), founder of BSFL producer INSEACT, notes that many “of the promises made by insect companies have not been delivered on”; that “several large facilities have been built and are underperforming”; and that the “industry [is] in a precarious moment”. In an interview with AgFunderNews, the CFO of Entobel remarked that investors have “seen a lot of capital not achieving very much” (Watson, 2024). 

At the time of writing, most insect producers are thought to be loss-making.  Only two of businesses among those that have raised more than $10M are understood to be profitable on an operating (EBIDTA) basis, Protix and Nutrition Technologies.  But given the capital-intensive nature of insect producer business model and high depreciation expenses, EBITDA is likely to be a misleading performance indicator (Badeski, 2023).   Kees Arts, Protix CEO, remarked at the Insect to Feed the World Conference in June 2024, that the firm was not yet generating a satisfactory return on invested capital.

The struggles of high-profile businesses coupled with a lack of profitability may mean it is harder for the sector to attract fresh investment in coming years. Badeski (2023) suggests “there is now a ‘wait-and-see’ mentality among investors to determine if the industry will work as larger operations start to come online.”

While it is clear that the farmed insect sector is facing challenges, it is difficult to disentangle how much of the slowing of investment can be attributed to broader economic conditions, and how much is sector-specific. Chart 5 suggests that funding flows into startups across all industries increased from 2014 to 2021 before falling back in 2022 and 2023. It seems plausible that there will be major failures across any rapidly growing industry where startups test different business models. 

Chart 5 – Annual venture funding into startups across all industries (by value, USD)

Source: Crunchbase 

The outlook for future funding flows to the insect sector remains highly uncertain. In the near term, it seems unlikely that annual funding will return to the levels observed in 2020 or 2022. But as the broader investment environment recovers, it seems plausible that firms that can demonstrate a credible path profitability may be able to continue to attract investment.

A simple model of BSFL and mealworm production capacity 

In order to assess what recent firm failures and weaker outlook for investment flows might mean for the production capacity of the insect sector, I built a simple Monte Carlo model in R. The model focuses on BSFL and mealworms, reflecting how these species groups have attracted the largest amount of publicly-disclosed investment.

The starting point for the model is cumulative investment into BSFL and mealworm farming companies. I first made some adjustments to take into account funding deals where the type of deal was known but the value of funding was not disclosed. I then projected forward cumulative investment in future years, assuming it would grow at a rate of between 3% and 16% a year. 

Production capacity is then calculated using three additional assumptions: a failure rate—reflecting the share of investment that does not result in any production capacity; a time lag—reflecting the amount of time it takes from investment announcement to production capacity coming online; and production efficiency—the average amount of investment needed to generate annual production a tonne of dried insects.

Figures 1 and 2 describe the equations used to estimate production capacity, while Table 1 describes the statistical distribution from which the model draws values. The model parameters were calibrated such that 90% of values for a given assumption would lie between the values described in the range column. Annex 1 provides further detail on the investment path implied by my investment growth rate assumptions, while Annex 2 provides more information on the judgements underpinning the production efficiency of capital assumptions.

Figure 1 – Assumptions used to project production capacity 

Figure 2 – Approach to calculating cumulative investment driving investment production from 2024 onwards

Table 1 – Assumptions used to project production capacity 

Median projection of production capacity of 221K tonnes in 2030

Chart 6 and Table 2 describe the model projections for BSFL and mealworm production capacity until 2035, expressed in tonnes of dried insects. The median projection for production capacity in 2030 is 221K tonnes, just under half of the Rabobank projection of 500K tonnes, and well below 2019 forecasts by IPIFF members (2.5M tonnes for Europe alone) or the 23M projected in Elleby et al. (2022).

The model simulations imply a high degree of uncertainty in the outlook for production capacity, in turn driven by uncertainty about the input assumptions. Around half of simulations correspond to production capacity between 151K and 346K tonnes, and 90 percent of simulations correspond to production capacity between 90K and 695K tonnes. 

Chart 6 – Projected production capacity of the BSF and mealworm farming sectors

Table 2 – Projected production capacity of the BSF and mealworm farming sectors, in thousands

Number of BSFL & mealworms harvested annually

In order to understand what the production projections might mean for the number of insects farmed and living on farms at any point in time, I extended the model to estimate these values. Assumptions used in these calculations are described in Annex 3.

Chart 7 and Table 3 describe the model projections for the number of BSFL and mealworms harvested annually until 2035. The median projection is for 3.9T larvae to be harvested in 2030, with 50% of simulations pointing to between 2.5T and 6.1T harvested larvae, and 90% of simulations pointing to between 1.5T and 13T harvested larvae. The wide range of estimates reflects uncertainty in the underlying production capacity estimates, as well as uncertainty in the parameters used to estimate the number of larvae harvested from a given level of production capacity.

Note that the estimates exclude pre-harvest mortality (e.g. due to disease) or death of insects used for breeding purposes. Adjusting for these would result in a higher estimate of the number of deaths, as would adjustments to include a wider range of farmed insect species.

Chart 7 – Projected number of BSFL and mealworms harvested annually

Table 3 – Projected number of BSFL and mealworms harvested annually, in trillions

Number of BSFL & mealworms alive at any point in time

Charts 8 and Table 4 describe the model projections for the average number of BSFL and mealworms alive on farms through to 2035. The median projection is for average farmed populations of 293B larvae in 2030, with 50% of simulations pointing to a farmed population between 185B and 475B, and 90% of simulations pointing to a population between 99B and 1.05T. As with the annual harvest simulations, these projections effectively assume zero pre-harvest mortality and no breedstock, so the number of insects alive on farms at any time is likely to be higher.

Even under a relatively modest outlook for growth in investment insect farming, the model projections are consistent with there being a reasonably high probability that the number of BSFL on farms at any point in time will exceed the number of farmed shrimp.

Chart 8 – Projected number of BSFL and mealworms alive at any time

Table 4 – Projected number of BSFL and mealworms alive at any time, in billions

Caveats and limitations 

There are lots of caveats about the data and model limitations that readers should be aware of before citing or making decisions based on the content of this post.

Limitations of the data and the data extraction process 

The data from Charts 1 to 4 and accompanying analysis were based on a dataset extracted manually by Rethink Priorities staff and contractors, which may not be fully comprehensive or accurate.

The starting point was a search for insect farming companies on the Crunchbase website, which identified 104 relevant businesses. We conducted manual internet searches for each company and other websites (e.g. Dealroom, news articles) to code company activity and species farmed, and identify news stories for funding deals that Crunchbase may not have captured. Funding deals in other currencies were converted into USD using exchange rate data for the month the deal was announced. While we conducted some sense checks on the data, it is possible that manual errors may have occurred during the data extraction process.

Crunchbase itself is likely only to capture information on companies and deals which will be of interest to certain types of funders in developed markets, and thus our dataset may fail to capture investments in other markets (e.g. Africa, Latin America, and East Asia) or private investments made by large companies. For many deals, the monetary funding amount was not disclosed. 

As a consequence of biases in our search process and deals where funding values were not disclosed, it is likely we will have underestimated the total amount of funding going into insect farming, but it is unclear whether we are likely to have captured 95% of total investment or closer to only 60%.

We did not make any adjustments for potential biases in our search process or undisclosed funding values in our description of investment trends or in Charts 1 to 4. In our projection capacity model, we made adjustments for undisclosed funding values, but not for biases in the types of insect farming company most likely to be captured in our dataset.

Major model limitations

In addition to uncertainty about the value of assumption parameters, the model used to estimate future production capacity has a number of limitations.

Demand not factored in – The production capacity model is a very simple model based effectively only on future investment flows and how efficiently this investment can be deployed. Actual production in a given year will be determined by a much wider range of factors, including demand, which is likely to depend on price and quality, which in turn is likely to be affected by cost of production. The model also does not consider constraints the industry may face as it scales, such as limitations in the availability of (and price paid for) suitable substrate for larval rearing.

Not all investment will be captured – The model is unlikely to capture all investment that might enable production capacity to be built. In addition to our cumulative investment data most likely not capturing all investment flows into insect farming (described above), it is plausible that at least some firms could reinvest undistributed profits into building new productive capacity. Given the lack of the evidence of highly profitable insect producers at the time of writing, this is probably a reasonable assumption in the near term, but is less likely to be true in later years. Indeed it is likely that as time goes by, future investment will be concentrated in firms that have the greatest prospects of profitability.

Model assumes input assumptions are independent when in fact they are likely to be correlated – For simplicity, the model used to estimate productive capacity effectively assumes that assumptions like investment growth, firm failure rates, and the efficiency of capital deployment are independent of each other, when it is likely that these factors will be interdependent. For example, in a world where most firms are able to deploy capital very efficiently, failure rates are likely to be lower, and investment flows are likely to be higher. In contrast, where capital deployment is inefficient, the failure rate might be higher, and future investment flows may be larger. As a consequence, readers may wish to place more credence in the ‘tails of the distribution’ of simulation results, or favor projections based on scenario analysis rather than the Monte Carlo simulation model used here.

Model assumes parameter assumptions are static in any given simulation – For simplicity, for any given simulation, the model assumes that the parameter values are fixed (e.g. annual investment growth rate, failure rate, production efficiency). In reality these parameters are likely to change over time. For example, in any given scenario we might expect failure as share of cumulative investment to be high and investment flows to be lower in the short term, but then investment flows to increase and failure rates to fall once successful business models are identified.

Broodstock and pre-harvest mortality not considered – The model for estimating the number of larvae harvested and alive at any time does not adjust for pre-harvest mortality or number of broodstock needed to support a given population. As such the model probably underestimates the number of animals slaughtered or alive at any time to support a given production volume.

Number of animals calibrated only using BSFL weight and dry matter – For simplicity, the model only uses the typical weights and dry matter content of BSFL (and not for mealworms) at harvesting to estimate the number of animals slaughtered, though the model adjusts for differences in lifespan across the species groups when estimating the number of animals alive at any time. 

Annex 1 – Path for investment flows implied by the model

Chart 9 and Table 5 illustrate the projected path for cumulative investment into BSFL and mealworm farming, after adjusting for deals where the funding amount was not disclosed, and assuming that, in any given simulation, cumulative investment growth remains at a constant value drawn from a beta distribution with a 5th percentile of 3% and 95th percentile of 16%.

Chart 9 – Projected cumulative investment into BSFL and mealworm farming

 Table 5 – Projected cumulative investment, in USD billions

Annex 2 – Investment efficiency assumptions 

The model assumes that the efficiency at which investment can be turned into production capacity will lie somewhere between $2.7K and $19K per tonne of dried insects per year.

The more efficient $2.7K per tonne pa figure is based on Entobel’s Vietnam factory, which is self-proclaimed to be the “the world’s most CAPEX-efficient BSF production facility” (Watson, 2023). 

Entobel reports having raised $36M and to have built a plant with production capacity of 10K tonnes of protein per meal a year. Assuming that 4 units of dried insects will yield around 3 units of defatted meal, Entobel’s plant corresponds to an investment cost of around $2.7K to generate production capacity of a tonne of dried insects per year.

The $19K figure is based on Protix’s Bergen op Zoom site. 

Protix reports it spent at least EUR40M in technology, operations and product development, and at least EUR40M in developing its Bergen op Zoom site. It separately reports that the Bergen op Zoom site produces 14K of live larvae equivalent per year. Assuming a tonne of live larvae yields 0.25 tonnes of dried insects and an exchange rate of 1.1 USD per Euro, this implies a capital cost $12.6K/tonne pa if only the site development costs are taken into account, or $25.2K/tonne pa if both site development and technology, operations, and product development costs are take into account. If half of the technology, operations, and product development costs are attributed to the Bergen op Zoom site, it corresponds to a cost of around $19K per tonne pa.

I believe Protix is a reasonable company to base the upper bound on, as it is the only large European/Western BSFL company that I am aware of that is profitable. I’d expect future investments by Protix to be more efficient than the $19K per tonne pa figure I’ve assumed, but the average investments made by other firms to be less efficient.

Annex 3 – Assumptions to estimate number larvae harvested and farmed at any time

Table 6 below describes the assumptions used to convert the production projections into the number of animals harvested and alive at any time. 

Note that for simplicity, I’ve assumed that the dry matter percentage of dried larvae, and the dry matter weight of harvested larvae are the same for mealworms as they are for BSFL. 

Figure 3 – Assumptions used to project production capacity 

Figure 4 – Approach to calculating cumulative investment driving investment production from 2024 onwards

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Acknowledgments

This post is a project of Rethink Priorities—a think tank dedicated to informing decisions made by high-impact organizations and funders across various cause areas. The author is Sagar Shah. Thanks to Daniela R. Waldhorn and Neil Dullaghan for their helpful feedback and strategic guidance, Ben Stevenson and Shaan Shaikh for reviewing and copyediting assistance, and Hannah McKay for reviewing the statistical code used to produce the model and charts. 

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