This post outlines a framework of five characteristics that seem most relevant for longtermists to consider when evaluating the impact of a “global agent” (as defined below) like a world government or a strong global governance institution.

In the context of forecasting, how you ask a question can be a large factor in how much information you get from the forecasts on that question. We will thus explore the problems associated with the way you operationalize a question on a forecasting platform, which we will call the question specification. (Terms also used include resolution criteria or operationalization.) Specifically: what are types of specification problems that reduce or misalign optimization power going towards prediction (in different forecasting settings)? What are some ways to resolve these different problems?