This is the seventh post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This post examines how uncertainty increases over time and estimates a model of how a Bayesian would interpret increasingly uncertain forecasts.

This is the sixth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This report considers a time of perils-based case for prioritizing existential risk mitigation.

Agricultural land redistribution is a type of agrarian reform in which large farms are broken up and distributed to tenants or landless peasants. Land redistribution typically requires exceptional circumstances to succeed. Past redistributive efforts have been most successful in the aftermath of revolution, war, or independence. When redistribution has succeeded, it has been accompanied by extensive agricultural support, such as rural infrastructure development, subsidies for fertilizers and high-yield seeds, agronomic training, and cheap credit. The main value of redistribution appears to be improved agricultural yields, but redistribution is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for improved yields.

The value of charter cities can be divided into three main buckets: (1) direct benefits from providing an engine of growth that increase the incomes and wellbeing of people living in and around the city, (2) domestic indirect benefits from scaling up successful charter city policies across the host country, and (3) global indirect benefits from providing a laboratory to experiment with new policies, regulations, and governance structures. We think it is unlikely that charter cities will be more cost-effective than GiveWell top charities in terms of directly improving wellbeing.

Lead exposure is a large problem with social costs on the order of $5-10 trillion annually, most of which come through neurological damages and losses in IQ causing lost income later in life. Lead exposure is diverse both in terms of sources and geography, with there being many different pathways for environmental lead to enter the human body and exposure being common across nearly all low- and middle-income countries. Although the proportion of the lead burden attributable to different sources is unclear, important exposure pathways include informal recycling of lead acid batteries, residential use of lead-based paint, consumption of lead-adulterated foodstuffs, and cookware manufactured with scrap lead. Rough initial cost-effectiveness estimates suggest that some strategies for dealing with lead exposure could be as or more cost-effective than GiveWell top charities.